Clinton Seen As Winner Over Obama In Next Tuesday's Primary
Obama is expected to get a lift from the black vote in New York City, judging from the support he received from black voters in South Carolina last Saturday. However, that segment of the electorate made up half the Democratic voters, and that will not be the case here next Tuesday.
BY JOHN TOSCANO

Although Senator Barack Obama may be enjoying some momentum from his impressive South Carolina primary victory, when next Tuesday's primary in New York state rolls around, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is expected to win the day in her state and walk off with the 281 delegates.

Obama is expected to get a lift from the black vote in New York City, judging from the support he received from black voters in South Carolina last Saturday. However, that segment of the electorate made up half the Democratic voters, and that will not be the case here next Tuesday.

Clinton has consistently outpolled Obama and former Senator John Edwards in this state since the campaign started last year. Recent surveys have supported that trend despite recent defections of blacks to Obama recently.

Notwithstanding Obama's ability to attract the black vote, in New York City elected black public officials and some church leaders have remained loyal to Clinton.

Another factor to be weighed in trying to predict the outcome of this contest is the high-profile, politically potent endorsements Obama received from Senator Edward (Ted) Kennedy on Monday.

Coming a week before the crucial Super Tuesday primaries that will be held in 22 states February 5, the veteran senator, a liberal icon, was joined by his son, Congressmember Patrick Kennedy (D- Rhode Island) and niece Caroline Schlossberg, the daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy.

Senator Kennedy is believed to have decided to endorse Obama because of the sudden emergence of the divisive race factor in the campaign, which Kennedy blamed on Bill Clinton.

Whether the Kennedy endorsement and the rumored reason for it will galvanize a greater black vote for Obama next Tuesday remains to be seen. But, as was mentioned previously in this story, the black electorate in this state, which is concentrated in portions of New York City, does not appear to be large enough to make Obama a winner here.

Here in Queens and in the other boroughs, Obama will have delegate candidates on the ballot in virtually every Congressional district while Edwards is hardly represented.

While many of the delegates running in Clinton's column are easily recognizable public officials, the same cannot be said for Obama's delegates, except in the 6th Congressional District covering the Rockaways, where City Councilmember James Sanders Jr. is listed as an Obama delegate.

Among the Clinton delegates are state Senator Toby Ann Stavisky and Councilmember John Liu in the 5th CD; former Councilmember Archie Spigner, present Councilmember Thomas White Jr. and Assemblymember Audrey Pheffer in the 6th CD; Borough President Helen Marshall and Councilmember Hiram Monserrate in the 7th CD; Assemblymember Catherine Nolan and Councilmember Melinda Katz in the 9th CD, and former Mayor David Dinkins and Assemblymember Michael Gianaris in the Queens/Manhattan 14th CD.

Most congressmembers and other officials will be special delegates for Clinton at the convention.

Note: The Republican primary is covered in John Toscano's "I On Politics" column on page 46.