Dems' Race For Prez In NY Could Have Impact On '09 Mayoral Contest

The current wild scramble for the Democratic presidential nomination this year could have a major influence on the New York City mayoral race in 2009.

At the beginning of the campaign for the nomination a year ago, U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton enjoyed a commanding lead over Senator Barack Obama and other Democrats. At that time, part of Clinton's lead came from her popularity among black voters, who favored her over Obama, who is black.

Clinton's popularity among blacks was reflected by the fact that even most black political leaders, such as Congressmember Charles Rangel, the top Democrat in Harlem, was in Clinton's corner. However, City Councilmember Bill Perkins, also a Harlem Democrat, had endorsed Obama. The main reason was that, while a year ago, Obama was an unknown factor, not only among blacks but generally with the whole city and national electorate, all that changed as the campaign among the presidential hopefuls unfolded slowly during 2007. Obama's victory in the Iowa causus, in which Clinton ran third, vaulted him to the top ranks of the contenders.

In the New Hampshire primary, Obama looked like a sure winner coming up to the balloting on January 8, but Clinton surged in the last few days of that campaign and scored an upset victory, albeit by an extremely narrow margin. Certainly, Obama did not lose any prestige when beaten by the former First Lady.

Although black voters supported Obama both in Iowa and New Hampshire, there was no indication how blacks in New York, both the city and state, felt about him.

That question was answered last Sunday when the New York Daily News published a poll of New York State Democratic voters which showed that Obama was favored by 42 percent of black voters while Clinton drew 40 percent of their votes. This contrasted with a Siena College poll taken a month ago which showed blacks strongly favoring Clinton over Obama.

Overall, however, the poll of 402 likely Democratic voters taken by the polling firm of Blum & Weprin last Wednesday and Thursday showed Clinton in a clear lead over Obama by 47 percent to 27 percent.

Of course, the true test of black voter sentiment in the Clinton-Obama contest in New York state will come on February 5 when the state's Democratic and Republican voters will cast ballots in the presidential primary contest.

If blacks vote on that day as they did in the News poll, then the question will be: will they support a black candidate for mayor next year, 2009, in the same way the Blum & Weprin poll indicated?

That would help city Comptroller William Thompson, who has declared his candidacy already. Also expected to be among the Democrats running are Congressmember Anthony Weiner (Queens/Brooklyn), Council Speaker Christine Quinn (Manhattan) and Councilmember Tony Avella (Bayside).

The city has had one previous black mayor, David Dinkins, who served one term from 1990 to 1993, so the precedent has been set.

But Obama's becoming the first Democratic candidate for president later this year should certainly have a favorable effect on a black mayoral candidate in 2009. And if Obama goes on to become the first black president of the United States, then the race factor will be even greater in future elections.

As for how the Democratic mayoral primary for next year is shaping up, according to the latest filings released by the city Campaign Finance Board, Thompson leads the pack with $3.6 million collected and Weiner is second at $3.4 million. Quinn follows, at $2.3 million and Avella at $150,000. All the candidates are eligible for matching funds, too.

The leading Republican candidate at this point is supermarket magnate John Catsimatides, who has announced his candidacy for the mayor's chair.

Weiner said that his campaign had raised $1.6 million in the six-month period ending January 11 to reach the $3.7 million total. This, he said, was good news because he would have the resources "to focus a campaign on what matters to New Yorkers: improving our schools, fighting crime and creating affordable housing".

In the same six-month period, Thompson raised $1 million, Quinn $1.1 million and Avella $77,000.

SPEAKING OF MONEY IN THE BANK... Councilmember Eric Gioia (D- Long Island City) reports his possible 2009 race for Public Advocate has attracted $1.5 million already. Gioia has done it the hard way, by collecting mostly $10 contributions from many, many admirers. He's close to a total of $3.85 million, the spending limit for the PA job, when matching funds are figured in.

MAYOR TO VISIT NEW POOL: Queens Borough President Helen Marshall announced the official opening yesterday of the new Olympicsized pool and ice skating rink complex in Flushing Meadows-Corona Park. Mayor Michael Bloomberg wasted no time in visiting the complex. In fact, the mayor invited hundreds of dignitaries and public officials to join him today at the pool/rink complex to hear his State of the City address. Festivities start at 1 p.m. promptly.

KENNEDYS IN ALBANY: The Kennedy family last week was in Albany for Governor Eliot Spitzer's State of the State address, during which he proposed that the Triborough Bridge be renamed in honor of the late Robert F. Kennedy.

State Assembly officials said the Kennedy family has long sought the renaming, which was introduced as a resolution by Assemblymember Richard Brodsky (D- Westchester). The new name for the bridge, which connects Western Queens to Manhattan and The Bronx, should pass easily, but Assemblymember Keith Wright (D- Manhattan) offered mild opposition. Wright said many things are named for the Kennedys, and if the bridge is to be renamed it should honor some local person at its terminus in Manhattan or The Bronx.

2ND SUITOR FOR GENNARO'S SEAT: We reported recently that Martha Taylor, a Democratic district leader in Jamaica Estates who's on the city controller's staff, had thrown her hat into the ring for the City Council seat that will be vacated next year by Councilmember James Gennaro (D- Fresh Meadows).

Recently, another Queens Dem district leader, Michael Simanowitz, chief of staff to Assemblymember Nettie Mayersohn (D- Flushing), also intends to run for Gennaro's seat.

Gennaro, one of the city's leading environmentalists, has said he plans to challenge state Senator Frank Padavan (R- C, Bellerose) for his Northeast Queens post.