NYS Leaning Toward Joining Other States With Feb. 5, '08 Primary
BY JOHN TOSCANO

Clinton has seen national straw polls recently that reflect support going to Senator Barack Obama over the past two months.

New York state is poised to switch its presidential primary date to February 5 next year, joining about 20 other states and creating some strategy headaches for many of the candidates.

Scheduling a national primary on February 5 means that the trailing candidates will have neither the time nor the money to devote quality campaign time to many of the states opting for the February date.

It also means that by the end of the voting day next February 5, there will probably be a major narrowing of the field for both parties, giving the leading candidates ample time to battle each other in a gruelling 10-month campaign.

The size of a campaign war chest will also take on even more importance than it has now. It will take a mountain of cash to buy television time on almost two dozen states at the same time, providing a major advantage to Senators Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and perhaps John Edwards on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney among the Republican candidates.

The major reason for many states, such as New York, California and New Jersey moving up their primary dates is that it gives them more relevance in the nominating process. As California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said after signing the legislation that switched his state's primary from June to February, "Moving our presidential primary means California will have the influence it deserves when it comes to choosing the next presidential candidates."

As California pulled the switch, New Jersey took the first step to follow suit. And in New York, following comments by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno that they favored the February 5 date, Governor Eliot Spitzer stated there was an increased likelihood that he would approve legislation to place New York on the February 5 list of primary states.

If New York makes the change, the date of the presidential primary election would be moved up from the current March 6 date.

Not too long ago, it appeared that there would be little real interest in a New York state presidential primary election, no matter what the date was. Clinton and Giuliani, both New Yorkers, were seen having no problem winning their respective primaries here.

That may still apply for Giuliani, but Clinton has seen national straw polls recently that reflect support going to Senator Barack Obama over the past two months.

In Time Magazine polls, for instance, Clinton's 19 percent lead over Obama has dwindled to 7 percent between January and March.

Clinton should have no problem fending off Obama in her home state, where she garnered about 75 percent of the vote in her re-election bid last November, but the Time Magazine series of surveys, as well as others make one pause in conceding any state to Obama.