GOP Faces Gloomy Scenario In Next Year’s Races
by john toscano

When Governor Nelson Rockefeller died in 1973, the completion of his term by Lieutenant Governor Malcolm Wilson saw the end of 16 years of Republican domination of the state political scene and the legislature. For most of the Rockefeller years, the Assembly and State Senate were also controlled by the GOP.

The Rockefeller era was followed by 20 years of Democratic rule of the governorship by Hugh Carey (1975–1982) and Mario Cuomo (1983–1994). During this period, the Dems also controlled the Assembly.

But the state senate continued to be controlled for these two decades, as had been the case for the previous 18 years, by Republicans, always giving the GOP a meaningful position during critical budget sessions.

However, Republican control of the senate is now threatened as Democrats appear to be headed to a new period of domination in the state.

In next year’s elections, United States Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be poised for an easy re-election victory, as does Attorney General Eliot Spitzer in the gubernatorial race.

Clinton’s Republican opponent at the moment is Westchester District Attorney Jeanine Pirro, but Pirro is on very shaky ground since Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno publicly shot down her candidacy, making her a sure loser to Clinton.

Spitzer does not face an opposing candidate yet and the polls show him to be a strong choice to succeed Governor George Pataki. Spitzer would serve from 2007 to 2010 and probably for a second term after that.

With no threat to the Assembly’s continued control by the Dems, it is imperative that senate control remain in Republican hands. Bruno currently leads a 35 to 27 majority, but that number has been whittled down in recent elections.

Republican control of the Senate must continue at least until after the 2011 elections because a reapportionment of Assembly and Senate districts will be done at this time. If the Democrats control the governor’s chair and both houses of the legislature, they would have a free hand in the reapportionment process.

This is why Bruno is fighting so hard to get competitive U.S. Senate and gubernatorial candidates and prevent major Democratic victories in state senate races as well.